2009 Isn't As Great As 2008: Tampa Bay Rays' Bullpen Isn't the Same

After their improbable World Series run in 2008, many fans and analysts expected the 2009 Tampa Bay Rays club to be as good or better.

They’re not.

Since the Stuart Sternberg ownership era began in 2006, Cool Hand Stu could do no wrong.  Free parking at home games.  Fans were allowed to bring their own food to games, and tailgating in the parking lot on game day was encouraged.  Ballpark attractions on Left, Center, and Right Field Streets beyond the outfield stands really enhanced the stadium experience for casual fans.  There aren’t many ballparks that let you play baseball video games in a lounge area that looks like the Formans’ basement on “That 70’s Show.” 

More importantly, the personnel decisions all made sense for a team that was trying to build a winning culture over time.  Though the Rays had stockpiled a small village of top-5 1^st round draft picks through their history, the trade strategy in 2006 was to continue to get younger.  Aubrey Huff brought Ben Zobrist and Mitch Talbot.  Danys Baez brought Edwin Jackson.  Mark Hendrickson brought Dioner Navarro.  Joey Gathright brought JP Howell.  There was a perceivable difference between losing with young talent and losing with established veterans, which had been the hallmark of the Rays for the first 8 years or so. 

Eventually those draft picks would blossom.  David Price made the majors a year after being drafted.  Evan Longoria is the reigning Rookie of the Year.  Jeff Niemann is in the starting rotation and leads the team in wins. Delmon Young was the centerpiece of the trade that brought Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett from the Twins.  Garza’s a legit ace, and Bartlett’s hitting over .370 right now.  B.J. Upton has played superstar defense in centerfield and hit 7 home runs in the playoffs last year.  The only exceptions to the rule were Dewon Brazelton, who just could not make it in the majors, and Josh Hamilton, whose drug and alcohol problems nearly took his own life before rejuvenating his career and his life with Cincinnati and then Texas. 

By 2008, the pieces were in place.  Aki Iwamura came over in 2007 from Japan to provide Gold Glove caliber defense at third, and seamlessly transitioned over to second to pave the way for Longoria in 2008.  Carlos Pena didn’t make the team out of spring training in 2007, but made a Wally Pipp out of Greg Norton and hit 46 homers that year while also playing great defense at first.  Navarro developed into an All Star.  Bartlett brought order to the infield, hit over .280, and stole 20 bases.  Late round draft picks James Shields and Andy Sonnanstine combined with fireballers Kazmir, Garza, and Jackson to form a strong starting rotation that only missed 9 starts all year collectively.  With the number of pitching injuries today, that in itself was an amazing feat.

Today's starting pitchers are rarely allowed to throw more than 110 pitches in a start, which greatly reduces their ability to affect the final outcome of the game.  Rather, most games are won or lost by the middle relievers.  Closers are vastly overrated in their value to a team, because the outcome of the game is usually determined by the time they reach the mound.  Many managers won't use their closer unless they have a lead, and some won't even bring in a closer with runners on base. Yet the closer role is usually reserved for the most effective reliever.  Conversely, middle relievers are usually guys deemed to be not good enough to start or to close.  Wouldn’t it make sense to have your most effective relief pitcher follow a starter who leaves the game with a lead?  The 1996 Yankees got it right with Mariano Rivera coming in for the 7^th and 8^th innings to be virtually unhittable.  They took their chances with the adventures of John Wetteland in the 9^th, and he usually got the job done. By the time Wetteland came on, Rivera had already put out the fire.

The real story of 2008 for the Tampa Bay Rays comes down to 3 players who combined to take on the role of 1996’s Rivera.  Grant Balfour and JP Howell had career years, and Dan Wheeler bounced back to his 2005-06 form after a miserable 2007.  If the three of them were one player, they would have been a Cy Young award candidate and probable winner.  Here’s their combined stat line:

You’d have to go back to Pedro Martinez’ Cy Young season of 2000 to find an AL pitcher who threw at least 210 innings with an ERA under 2.35.  In 2008, “Balhowheeler” had more strikeouts than any AL pitcher except AJ Burnett, a better WHIP than Roy Halladay, and 80 fewer hits than Cliff Lee.  They were the key to the team winning the AL East over the Yankees and Red Sox.

Fast forward to this year, and the Rays are essentially a .500 team.  Despite having league leaders in the Triple Crown categories plus stolen bases, the relief pitching has taken a huge step backward.   The starting pitching is basically the same as it was, albeit with different names. Shields and Garza are as good as they were last year, Niemann is as good as Kazmir was, Sonnanstine has underperformed, and Price is emerging as a pitcher who might be the best out of all of them.  With the outstanding beginning to the year that Edwin Jackson is having in Detroit, I’m sure that management is kicking themselves for trading their 2008 wins leader.  That’s a discussion for another day, though.  Today is about two-thirds of Balhowheeler, namely Balfour and Wheeler.

Wheeler’s on pace to give up a career high 16 homers and 25 walks.  What’s scary is how bad he’s been at home, with a 9.00 ERA and a .321 batting average against.  On the road, he’s stellar, with a 1.74 ERA and a .174 avg. against.  Similarly, lefties this year are demolishing him, with a .320 average and .640 slugging.  Last year, Wheels got everyone out, with a .215 avg. to lefties and .163 against righties.  That’s unacceptable.  Wheeler does have a mixed track record, with outstanding back to back seasons in Houston during ‘05-’06 despite a rough 2007.

Balfour, on the other hand, had never been very good until 2008.  If you take out 2008’s numbers from his career statistics, you have a guy who’s given up 112 hits in 117 innings, which is fairly average.  Add in 73 walks and 13 home runs, and the numbers get ugly.  A 5.38 ERA and 1.58 WHIP isn’t getting it done, even if he did have 129 strikeouts.  The great thing about baseball is that you never know when a player is going to break out and do something amazing, like Balfour’s 2008.  A 1.54 ERA and 82 K’s in 58 innings is legendary.  However, 2009 has been a dose of reality for GB.  If a struggling relief pitcher who has spent a lot of time in the minors and bounced from team to team suddenly starts blowing guys away, what does that mean?  If the guy also has a red hot temper that flares nearly every time he pitches, what does that say?  In the steroid era, it says he might have used anything he could to stay in the league. 

For the record, I don’t care what he did or didn’t do.  I just want to see him get outs.  The good thing about Balfour is that he’s equally effective or ineffective against lefties and righties.  Pitching coach Jim Hickey has his work cut out for himself if he’s going to take on the task of getting Balfour back to his form of last year.  He might want to call up Canseco.